Immigration, Trade And Tariff: What Will Define India-US Ties Under Trump 2.0

US President Donald Trump said he will likely meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a possible bilateral meeting in Washington DC as soon as February. Mr Trump said this after a telephonic conversation with PM Modi, the first interaction between the leaders after the former took oath as the 47th President of the United States.

Mr Trump also told reporters that he discussed the issue of illegal Indian immigrants in the US with PM Modi, expressing confidence that the Indian Prime Minister will do "what is right" about the matter, underlining that discussions are going on with India on the matter.

Separately, in a readout of a phone call between both leaders, the White House said that Trump had sought a move towards a "fair" bilateral trading relationship and deeper India-US cooperation.

India-US Relations Under Trump's 1st Presidency

India has enjoyed a comfortable relationship with the United States during President Donald Trump's first term in the White House. The Republican also shared some remarkable similarities in his style and slogans with PM Modi, especially when it comes to their rhetoric of making their nations great again, contributing to their strong personal relations.

Both leaders addressed thousands of people at two different rallies in Houston in September 2019 and in Ahmedabad in February 2020. PM Modi was among the top three world leaders to speak with Mr Trump after his stunning electoral victory in November 2024.

The Trump Administration between 2017-21 saw the revival of the moribund Quadrilateral Security Forum (Quad)- which brings the US, Australia, India, and Japan together to work for a free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. His administration also remained America's oldest and largest military command - the Pacific Command - to Indo-Pacific Command, in a largely symbolic move to signal India's importance to the US military to counter China's militarisation in the South China Sea.

Under Trump, the US National Security Strategy stressed that "Indo-Pacific" stretched "from the west coast of India to the western shores of the United States". This articulation of the Indo-Pacific framework provided a solid regional anchor for India-US cooperation for the first time. 

Mr Trump's foreign policies were mostly carried forward by the Biden Administration, which doubled down on the Indo-Pacific strategy and saw India as its regional partner in securing a balance of power in Asia and its waters. There was little reason to believe the situation would be different during Trump 2.0.

What Could Change Under Trump 2.0

However, during his campaign for re-election, The 78-year-old Republican called India a "very big abuser" on trade and vowed to use tariffs on global imports into the US to correct imbalances. He also threatened the BRICS group of nations, of which India is a part, with tariffs if they did not accept his demand of committing to not create a new currency.

Again while talking to House Republicans at a Florida retreat on Monday, he said that the US would impose tariffs on the countries that "harm" America as he named China, India and Brazil as high-tariff countries.

But his tariff threats aside, Mr Trump's second term is expected to bring both continuity and change in his India policies. 

The US is India's largest trading partner and two-way trade surpassed $118 billion in 2023/24, with India posting a surplus of $32 billion. India is also an important strategic partner in US efforts to counter China.

In Monday's call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he "emphasized the importance of India increasing its procurement of American-made security equipment and moving toward a fair bilateral trading relationship," a White House statement said. 

The White House also said that Mr Trump and Mr Modi emphasized their commitment to the Quad, with India to host Quad leaders later this year.

India plays an important role in making the US a pre-eminent global power. Its tech industry majorly relies on Indian workers trained in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) who move to the US with the help of H-1B visas. In 2023, Indian professionals constituted over a fourth of the 3.5 million STEM workers in the US. 

Mr Trump has pledged to crack down on illegal immigration, but he said he is open to legal migration of skilled workers and India is known for its massive pool of IT professionals, many of whom work across the world. 

According to a Bloomberg News report, India and the US have identified some 18,000 Indian migrants who are in the US illegally. After Monday's phone call, Mr Trump told reporters on Monday PM Modi "will do what's right" when it comes to taking back Indian immigrants who came to the US illegally.

The Republican also seems to be distancing the few hiccups in India-US relations that came under the Biden administration, especially Washington's accusations of Indian involvement in a foiled murder plot on American soil against a Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The US readouts this week and last made no mention of this matter.