In Uttar Pradesh, all talk about post-poll alliances

Lucknow: Counting of votes will begin at 8 am today in five states; most eyes are on Uttar Pradesh, where exit poll predictions say - hung Assembly. Calculators are out as likely political alignments are worked out - events of the last two decades suggest that only political expediency will decide friends and foes in the state.

If India's most populous state has indeed given a fractured verdict, what are Governor BL Joshi's options? He could ask the largest party to prove majority; he could invite the largest alliance to form government, or he could recommend President's Rule. In 1993, the Governor invited not the single largest party, the BJP, but the SP-BSP coalition to form government. In 1996, the BJP, again the single largest party, was not invited and the Governor recommended President's Rule. Five months later, a BSP-BJP combine came to power. In 2002, the Samajwadi Party was the single largest party, but was not invited to form government. The Governor recommended President's Rule; a BSP-BJP-RLD alliance staked claim. That association fell apart a year later and Mulayam Singh Yadav became Chief Minister. In 2007, UP just handed Mayawati a majority.

Hours before counting began for UP elections 2012, possible alliances were all the buzz. Would the Congress reconsider its emphatic no to partnering the Samajwadi Party? Or despite Rahul Gandhi's promise to rid UP of Mayawati's rule, would the Congress agree to prop the BSP back to power? Would the BJP and BSP be able to shrug off an uncomfortable past and much mistrust and get together yet again to share power? Or then would the Samajwadi Party, if it reaches within striking distance of simple majority at 202 seats, just attempt to break up the new Congress-Rashtriya Lok Dal marriage and bring Ajit Singh to its side? Or, in the simplest scenario, would the Samajwadi Party just manage that magical 202 mark and stake claim to form government?

Akhilesh Yadav, the 39-year-old who wrote the Samajwadi Party's UP script, will hope hard that exit polls get it right this once - they have predicted that the SP will emerge as the single largest party, though short of a simple majority at 202 seats; the UP Assembly has 403 seats.

These UP elections have been seen as career-defining for the Congress' Rahul Gandhi; seven years of single-minded focus on reviving the party's fortunes in the state are on test. As are his personal charisma and political equity. The exit polls over the weekend had predictions that fell well short of the great finish the party had hoped for, but the Congress' Salman Khurshid said hold on, it could be better: "It's not a picture that meets our expectations, but it's not a disastrous picture. It's better than before. The reality may be better than what is predicted. So let's wait till tomorrow, wait for reality." The Law Minister also delivered a quotable quote when he said the Congress was "not a cash and carry party...Rahul has talked about the long term. Nobody went into the depth that Rahul did. UP has not heard anyone speak like him, with his conviction."

Despite that Gandhi conviction, exit polls predict the Congress will come in fourth, after the SP, BSP and BJP, though it is expected to get more seats than the 22 it had last time. Since yesterday, Congress leaders have been called upon to limit damage inflicted by some plainspeak from senior leader Beni Prasad Verma who said that whatever its position in the seat tally, the Congress held the key and that it was not looking the Samajwadi Party way. "Congress has the key to form the government in Uttar Pradesh and we will form the government. If we have to take support, then BSP is better than Samajwadi Party (SP). SP is a party of goons, the whole state will be troubled by them. The BSP is a party of the Dalits," Mr Verma said.

The Congress crafted much of its UP strategy around attacking Ms Mayawati and promising to rid UP of her reign and the party quickly distanced itself from Mr Verma's comment. Mr Khurshid said today, "We have ideological directions, not thought control. Individual leaders may give personal preference but that will not be deciding factor. Deciding factor on alliances will be the view that our national leadership takes." Spokesman Janardhan Dwivedi also said, "Individuals may have different point of views but last decision is of the party and everyone has to accept it. If we get majority we would form a government, otherwise we will sit in the opposition."
Beni Prasad Verma was till recently a prominent leader of the Samajwadi Party. Congress sources say Mr Verma's statement was little more than a dig at his former party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose son Akhilesh has dismissed Mr Verma as "a commander that the Congress rented" and one who has failed to deliver.

The only alliance that the Congress is ready to discuss, says Salman Khurshid, is the pre-election alliance it sewed up with Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal. But as exit poll predictions began to be discussed, there was speculation about a possible SP-RLD alliance. RLD chief Ajit Singh, who is a new and important minister in the UPA government now, stoutly maintains that, "We have an alliance with the Congress in UP and at the Centre. The two parties will take a collective decision." (Watch: No tie-up with SP, says Ajit Singh)

In this grey zone of taunts and counter-taunts before numbers start speaking, the BJP's Nitin Gadkari had said last week, "Ajit Singh's party is like a taxi. Whoever does a 'meter down' they will go along with him."

But it was not Mr Gadkari's words but those of son Jayant Chaudhury that would have brought Ajit Singh's. Mr Chaudhary, an MP who also contested assembly elections in UP this time, said, "To survive, to serve your cause I don't think we will let any opportunity go by. Those who say they are not in politics to survive are just lying through their teeth."

Mr Chaudhury's words seem to sum up what is likely to happen in UP, across parties, tomorrow.

From the ruling BSP, there is no word yet after the exit polls, which have predicted that Mayawati will not get the second consecutive term she is seeking as Chief Minister, her fifth ever. Her win in the last elections in 2007 was the first time in many years that UP gave a party a majority, also thus making her the first Chief Minister in years to complete a five-year term.